Group 1 - The USDA reported that private exporters sold 190,000 tons of U.S. soybean meal to the Philippines for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year [1] - The European Commission indicated that as of January 15, the EU's soybean imports for the 2025/26 marketing year reached 6.7 million tons, a 16% decrease year-on-year, while soybean meal imports totaled 9.9 million tons, down 10% year-on-year [1] - On January 21, the total soybean meal transaction volume at major national oil mills was 154,500 tons, a decrease of 45,400 tons from the previous trading day, with spot transactions accounting for 116,800 tons [1] Group 2 - According to Everbright Futures, concerns are rising that U.S. soybean exports may stagnate again following China's 12 million tons procurement, as the current price structure makes U.S. soybeans less competitive [2] - Brazil's soybean harvest rate has exceeded 2%, with Mato Grosso state progressing the fastest at an estimated 7%, leading some institutions to raise Brazil's soybean production forecast to over 180 million tons, with estimates ranging from 170 million to 182.2 million tons [2] - Domestic soybean meal is expected to remain volatile, with oil mills maintaining prices amid logistics disruptions due to snowfall, resulting in lower crushing volumes and a third consecutive week of declining soybean meal inventories [2] Group 3 - New Century Futures noted a seasonal decline in domestic soybean arrivals, but oil mills maintain high soybean inventories and operating rates, leading to ample soybean meal supply [3] - The upcoming Chinese New Year is expected to drive concentrated fattening in livestock, creating a replenishment demand from feed enterprises, which will support soybean meal consumption [3] - Market focus before the holiday will center on South American weather, soybean arrival schedules, and logistics efficiency during the Spring Festival [3]
供应端宽松但成本支撑 预计豆粕期货盘面偏震荡
Jin Tou Wang·2026-01-22 07:00