市场供需两端均存在变数 PTA期货价格震荡

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market in the energy and chemical sector showed significant gains, with PTA futures experiencing a notable increase of 2.60% to reach 5290.00 yuan/ton [1] Group 1: Cost Side - Brent crude oil prices have maintained a strong technical position after breaking through key levels, supported by geopolitical factors [2] - Despite relatively low oil prices, currency depreciation is expected to provide support for oil prices, alongside a marginal easing of restrictions on fuel vehicles in Europe and the US [2] Group 2: Supply Side - CCF data indicates that the restart of 3 million tons of production in Dushan is underway, while 3.6 million tons of new material facilities are currently offline [2] - PTA operating rates are at 76.9%, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 1.3% [2] Group 3: Demand Side - Downstream demand is experiencing seasonal weakness, with polyester operating rates declining from previous highs; CCF polyester operating rates fell to 88.3% from 90.8%, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points [2] - Major polyester manufacturers have announced maintenance plans for January and February, with a total maintenance volume of approximately 1.538 million tons [2] - Weaving operating rates continue to decline, particularly in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, with ongoing weakness in orders [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - The PTA supply side faces uncertainties due to maintenance activities at facilities operated by INEOS and Yisheng New Materials, which may impact supply [2] - Increased production cuts in downstream polyester and significant influences from the cost side are expected to lead to price fluctuations in the market [2]