Morgan Stanley Initiates Nebius (NBIS) at Equalweight, Flags Long-Term AI Infrastructure Upside

Core Viewpoint - Nebius Group N.V. is recognized as a significant player in the AI sector, with a focus on long-term growth potential rather than immediate earnings, as highlighted by Morgan Stanley's analyst Josh Baer [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Nebius Group N.V. is based in Amsterdam and specializes in developing and operating AI cloud infrastructure for advanced machine learning model training and inference [5]. Group 2: Investment Potential - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for AI infrastructure, with the potential to rapidly scale its operations and bring significant capacity online [2]. - Nebius's AI compute business, along with its diversified software platform and customer base, is expected to drive long-term value [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In the short term, Nebius's financial performance is anticipated to be under pressure due to high capital expenditures and increasing depreciation costs [3]. - The company is expected to maintain deeply negative free cash flow as it aims to deliver 2.5 GW of AI infrastructure by the end of 2026 [3]. Group 4: Revenue Targets and Market Sentiment - There is skepticism regarding Nebius's target of $7-9 billion in annual recurring revenue by Q4 2026, with analysts labeling this goal as "optimistic" [4]. - Concerns have been raised about the company's ability to exceed expectations, particularly as EBIT is projected to remain under pressure due to rising depreciation [4].