申万宏源:25Q4我国纺服终端需求增速放缓 关税谈判结果陆续落定提振出口景气度
智通财经网·2026-01-22 07:50

Core Viewpoint - The retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles in China for the year 2025 reached 1.52 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with a slowdown in demand observed in Q4 2025 due to warmer winter temperatures affecting winter clothing sales [1][2] Domestic Demand - In 2025, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles amounted to 1.52 trillion yuan, with monthly growth rates of 6.3%, 3.5%, and 0.6% for October, November, and December respectively, indicating a slowdown in Q4 due to higher winter temperatures [1] - The performance of women's clothing brands is expected to show signs of recovery, with companies like Xinhe and Ge Li Si projected to achieve revenue growth in Q4 2025 [4] External Demand - China's textile and apparel exports totaled $293.8 billion in 2025, down 2.6% year-on-year, with textile exports at $142.6 billion (up 0.4%) and apparel at $151.2 billion (down 5.2%) [2] - Vietnam's textile exports grew by 7.0% to $39.6 billion, indicating a shift in the textile supply chain and highlighting the competitive pressures faced by Chinese exporters [2] Industry Performance - The overall sales in Q4 2025 were impacted by weak winter clothing consumption, but high-end outdoor and niche sports brands are expected to maintain strong growth, with brands like FILA and 361 Degrees projected to see significant revenue increases [3] - The home textile sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with companies like Luolai and Water Mercury showing stable growth, while Fuanna is still in a destocking phase [5] Non-woven Fabric Industry - The non-woven fabric sector is benefiting from quality upgrades and expanding demand, with companies like Wanjia and Nuo Bang expected to see revenue growth of 10% to 20% in Q4 2025 [6] Textile Manufacturing - The performance of the textile manufacturing chain is under pressure due to fluctuations in brand orders, particularly from Nike and Converse, while the Australian wool industry is expected to benefit from rising demand and price increases [7] Investment Insights - Looking ahead to 2026, domestic demand is anticipated to gradually recover, with potential investment opportunities in high-performance outdoor brands and discount retail sectors [9] - The global tariff negotiations are stabilizing, which may not affect the core manufacturing competitiveness of the industry [9]