稳预期，让企业和居民投资有利可图

Economic Performance - In 2025, China's GDP reached 140,187.9 billion yuan, marking a significant milestone as it surpassed 140 trillion yuan for the first time, with a growth rate of 5.0% compared to the previous year, aligning with market expectations and the annual growth target set at the beginning of the year [1][3] Growth Drivers - The primary drivers of economic growth were consumption and exports, with notable contributions from the improvement in manufacturing technology and the development of strategic emerging industries, reflecting a transformation in productivity [3][4] - The stock market showed a significant recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 18% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 30% in 2025 [4] Financing and Corporate Health - Social financing growth reversed its downward trend, increasing from 8.0% at the end of 2024 to 8.3% by the end of 2025, indicating a recovery in overall financing for enterprises, government, and households [4] - Non-financial corporate bank deposits saw a year-on-year growth rate rise from -2.2% in January 2025 to 3.6% by November 2025, suggesting improved cash flow conditions for enterprises [4] Challenges in Demand - Despite positive indicators, challenges remain, particularly the imbalance between strong supply and weak demand, which has become a major constraint on economic performance [6][7] - The decline in private investment and weak consumer sentiment, particularly in the housing market, have contributed to slower income growth and hindered consumption recovery [7][8] Policy Recommendations - To break the negative cycle of declining investment and consumption, it is crucial to improve expectations through policy guidance and institutional optimization, making investments and home purchases more attractive [8] - The focus of monetary policy in 2026 should be on achieving a clear inflation target of around 2%, with potential for further interest rate reductions to lower financing costs for the real economy [10][12]