下游开工率季节性震荡 聚丙烯呈区间震荡格局

Market Overview - As of January 21, the top 20 futures companies for polypropylene (PP) had a total long position of 462,700 contracts and a short position of 525,400 contracts, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 0.88. The net position decreased by 1,288 contracts to -62,800 contracts compared to the previous day [1] - The operating rate of PP petrochemical enterprises in China is at 75.62%, which is an increase of 0.15 percentage points from the previous week. Weekly production of PP granules reached 775,800 tons, down 0.44% week-on-week, while PP powder production fell to 56,900 tons, a decrease of 15.62% week-on-week [1] Profit Margins - The production margins for various methods of PP production are as follows: oil-based PP has a margin of -430.13 CNY/ton, coal-based PP -314.73 CNY/ton, methanol-based PP -970.67 CNY/ton, propane dehydrogenation -1,297.8 CNY/ton, and externally sourced propylene -435.4 CNY/ton [1] Institutional Insights - According to Xinda Futures, the current PP market is characterized by a balance of bullish and bearish factors, with short-term low inventory, maintenance of some facilities, and rising costs from refined oil providing support. However, long-term concerns include excess crude oil supply, increased post-holiday supply, weak downstream demand, and the substitution effect of granules, leading to a lack of clear directional movement and an overall range-bound market [3] - Minmetals Futures notes that the rise in futures prices is supported by a slight reduction in global oil inventories as predicted by the EIA monthly report, alleviating supply excess. There are no new capacity additions planned for the first half of 2026, which reduces pressure. Seasonal fluctuations in downstream operating rates contribute to a high overall inventory pressure, with no significant contradictions in the short term. The historical high level of warehouse receipts suggests that prices may stabilize as the supply excess situation changes in the first quarter of next year, with a shift from cost-driven declines to mismatched production leading to opportunities for low-price buying of PP spreads [4]