博时基金冯春远：2026年港股机会与布局之道

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant rebound in 2025, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 27.77%, marking the best annual performance since 2017. This recovery was driven by a combination of policy changes, liquidity improvements, and industrial transformations, including a net inflow of 1.3 trillion yuan from southbound funds, a 75 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and reforms at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange attracting new economy companies to list [1][2][3] - The trend of net inflows from southbound funds is expected to continue into 2026, supported by domestic asset allocation needs, the attractiveness of Hong Kong stock valuations, and a global easing environment. The funding structure is likely to diversify, with insurance and passive funds contributing to investment preferences [2][3][4] - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts and a weaker dollar are beneficial for Hong Kong stocks, enhancing liquidity and boosting valuations, particularly in interest-sensitive sectors like technology. However, fluctuations in US-China relations may impact market sentiment and individual company fundamentals, although the marginal impact has diminished [5][6][7] Group 2 - Industry differentiation in the Hong Kong stock market reflects the transition between old and new economic drivers rather than a short-term cycle shift. Investors are favoring a "barbell" strategy, balancing high-growth sectors like technology and healthcare with high-dividend assets [8][9] - The outlook for the Hong Kong stock market in 2026 is cautiously optimistic, with valuation recovery and profit improvements expected to provide dual support. Key sectors to watch include technology (especially the AI industry), healthcare, resource commodities, and essential consumer goods [10][11][12] - The investment logic for the Hang Seng Technology Index is shifting from "valuation recovery" to "earnings-driven," with a focus on revenue growth and profit margins as key pricing indicators. Investors are advised to pay attention to companies' cash flow generation capabilities rather than short-term speculative trends [13][14][15] Group 3 - The technology sector in Hong Kong is primarily concentrated among a few internet giants, focusing on mature business models and cash flow, while the A-share technology sector encompasses semiconductors and AI, emphasizing growth and policy drivers. This difference in risk-return characteristics allows investors to view both markets as complementary [16][17][18] - The performance outlook for the Hong Kong technology sector in 2026 suggests potential recovery amid volatility, contingent on continued support from domestic policies and the onset of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle. Profit improvements will be a key driver, although caution is advised regarding potential global AI valuation bubbles [19][20][21] - The core advantages of a dividend strategy include defensiveness and sustained cash flow, with high-dividend companies typically exhibiting strong financial health. This strategy is expected to receive significant policy and market support, making it a reliable component of an investment portfolio [22][23][24]