中加基金固收周报|市场面临降温

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance last week with major indices fluctuating and trading volume declining from high levels [1][8] Macro Data Analysis - China's exports in December increased by 6.6% year-on-year in USD terms, exceeding market expectations and also showing month-on-month growth [4][13] - For the entire year of 2025, exports are projected to grow by 5.5%, making it the largest contributor to economic growth among the three driving forces [4][13] - The strong export performance in December is attributed to sustained external demand during the global manufacturing cycle and a rush to export due to reduced domestic tax rebates [4][13] - The new export orders index for China's manufacturing PMI rose by 1.4 percentage points to 49.0% in December, while JPMorgan's global manufacturing PMI recorded 50.4%, indicating robust external demand [4][16] - Key export items included computers, integrated circuits, and automobiles, with the latter showing the strongest growth, potentially influenced by the EU's proposed minimum import price policy for Chinese cars [4][16] - ASEAN remains China's largest export destination [4][16] Short-term Market Strategy - The market is experiencing a cooling phase after a period of heightened enthusiasm, with a rapid decline in trading volume and financing levels [8][18] - Factors supporting the market include favorable liquidity conditions, a weak dollar cycle, and a gradual appreciation of the RMB [8][18] - The spring rally is driven by hotspots in commercial aerospace and AI applications, enhancing market risk appetite [8][18] - Regulatory measures have been implemented to cool down the market due to the rapid accumulation of risks from strong momentum [8][18] - The market's trading heat is quickly diminishing, and short-term thematic trends may enter a consolidation phase [8][18] Mid-term Market Outlook - Technology growth remains a favored direction, with expectations of improving economic fundamentals gradually accumulating [9][19] - The current economic fundamentals and technology narratives have not fundamentally changed, and the technology sector remains a priority for allocation [9][19] - Defensive dividend sectors may enter an observation period, with potential for fund allocation if aggressive sectors continue to face pressure [22] Long-term Market Perspective - The long-term dynamics of the US-China struggle are becoming clearer, with increasing skepticism about the US government's governance and institutional credibility [10][20] - Despite uncertainties in the US economic outlook and the Fed's interest rate cuts, the credit of the dollar remains intact [10][20] - The trend of long-term capital inflow into the Chinese equity market is expected to strengthen due to regulatory policies promoting passive investment products [10][20] - The increase in equity market profitability is likely to encourage residents to allocate more of their excess deposits into the stock market [10][20] Industry Insights - For defensive dividend sectors, a short-term observation period is recommended, with attention to potential fund allocation in response to worsening market sentiment [22] - In aggressive sectors, technology remains a key focus, particularly in AI and commercial aerospace, which are expected to continue driving performance [22] - The market should monitor the stabilization of AI applications and aerospace sectors for potential investment opportunities [22]