中加基金配置周报|央行下调再贷款利率，特朗普对欧洲提高关税

Key Insights - The U.S. CPI for December 2025 increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with core CPI rising by 2.6%, both remaining stable compared to previous values. The prolonged government shutdown may reduce the data's predictive value for future Federal Reserve policy. Market expectations indicate a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will remain unchanged in January 2026 [1][20] - China's foreign trade in 2025 reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, marking nine consecutive years of growth. In December, trade volume hit a record high of 4.26 trillion yuan, up 4.9% year-on-year. Rare earth exports surged by 32% to 4,392 tons in December, totaling 62,585 tons for the year [2][21] - The total social financing in China for 2025 amounted to 35.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.34 trillion yuan from the previous year. The total RMB loans rose by 16.27 trillion yuan, and RMB deposits increased by 26.41 trillion yuan. By the end of December 2025, the M2 money supply reached 340.29 trillion yuan, growing by 8.5% year-on-year, with a net cash injection of 1.31 trillion yuan for the year [3][21] Market Overview - The financing margin ratio for investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges has been raised from 80% to 100% for new financing contracts, aimed at reducing leverage and protecting investor rights [4][21] - The central bank has implemented a series of measures to support high-quality economic development, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in re-lending and rediscount rates, and an increase of 500 billion yuan in re-lending for small and micro enterprises [5][22] - The U.S. Department of Justice has initiated a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the renovation of the Fed's headquarters, raising concerns about the Fed's independence and leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [6][22] Stock Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai 50 index declining by 1.74%, while the ChiNext index increased by 2.58%. The central bank's interest rate cuts and strong domestic export and loan data contributed to a positive market sentiment [7][28] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 2.34%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 2.37%, reflecting improved export and loan data [8][30] - U.S. stock markets experienced declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 0.29%, amid rising geopolitical tensions and renewed trade war concerns [9][32] Bond Market Insights - In the bond market, long-term credit bonds saw a greater decline than short-term bonds, with the 5Y AA+ and AA- bonds dropping by 6 basis points. Overall, government bond rates also decreased, influenced by the central bank's policy adjustments [10][34] - U.S. Treasury yields increased, particularly the 3Y yield, which rose by 8 basis points, amid concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's independence following Powell's investigation [11][37] Economic Outlook - China's export resilience is evident, with December's export growth rising from 5.9% in November to 6.6%. Social financing data indicates a stabilization in RMB loan growth at 6.3% year-on-year [12][38] - The U.S. CPI remained stable at 2.7% year-on-year, suggesting limited changes in interest rate expectations, with a 4% probability of a rate cut in January 2026 [13][38]