中加基金权益周报|结构性降息政策落地，债券配置力量增强

Market Overview and Analysis - The issuance scale of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds in the primary market last week was 207 billion, 74.8 billion, and 169.8 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of -299.2 billion, 65.6 billion, and 41.1 billion [1][8] - The total issuance scale of non-financial credit bonds was 278.6 billion, with a net financing amount of 49 billion [1][8] - Two new convertible bonds were issued, with an expected financing scale of 2.18 billion [1][8] Secondary Market Review - Last week, the yield on interest rate bonds decreased, with government bonds and perpetual bonds performing well, influenced by structural interest rate cuts, increased central bank injections, and stock market fluctuations [2][9] Liquidity Tracking - The net injection in the open market last week was 812.8 billion, with the central bank conducting a 6-month reverse repurchase operation exceeding 300 billion, indicating a loosening of funds [3][10] Policy and Fundamentals - The central bank lowered the interest rates on structural monetary policy tools, and the policy for tax refunds on housing purchases was postponed for the second time [4][11] - December's export and financial data exceeded expectations, but the M1 growth rate continued to decline [4][11] Overseas Market - The situation in the Middle East continues to evolve, with U.S. core inflation cooling and Powell stating he received a subpoena from the U.S. Department of Justice [5][12] - The U.S. dollar appreciated slightly last week, while U.S. stocks fell and bond yields rose [5][12] Equity Market - The A-share index experienced high volatility last week, with the Wind All A index rising by 0.49%. The electronics and non-ferrous sectors led the gains, with funds returning to performance and economic growth-oriented directions [6][13] - The average daily trading volume last week was 3.47 trillion, an increase of 613.11 billion from the previous week [6][13] - As of January 15, 2026, the total financing balance for the entire A-share market was 2.701216 trillion, a significant increase of 98.073 billion from January 8 [6][13] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - The policy support for the "14th Five-Year Plan" continues, with the current monetary policy focusing on the quantity and price adjustment of structural tools, suggesting a lower probability of total policy tools being implemented in the short term [7][14] - The current policy focus remains on maintaining reasonable liquidity to stabilize market expectations and keep overall interest rates relatively stable [7][14] - The bond market is expected to continue with limited downward space for long-term rates, while the short-term performance is more certain, with stable funding expectations potentially aiding in the trading of spread varieties [7][14] - The next phase will see a shift in policy focus from monetary policy to local two sessions, with attention on whether there are expectation differences in the economic growth targets set for 2026 and corresponding trading opportunities [7][14] - The convertible bond index is rising, and in the long term, convertible bonds are preferred for equity asset allocation, but short-term caution is advised against overheating trading and valuation bubble risks, especially around the end of January when financial report pre-disclosure windows may significantly amplify the volatility of small and mid-cap stocks [7][14]