3 Bold Predictions to Start 2026

Core Predictions - Alphabet's Gemini is predicted to reach market share parity with OpenAI's ChatGPT in 2026, with ChatGPT currently holding 68% and Gemini at 18% market share [2][4] - The solar industry is expected to outperform the market in 2026, potentially doubling its performance due to increasing demand for power solutions, particularly in AI [7][10] - Home Builder stocks are forecasted to rise by 30% in 2026, driven by anticipated interest rate cuts and pent-up demand from homebuyers [13][15] Alphabet and AI Market - ChatGPT has lost 19 percentage points in market share over the last year, while Gemini gained 13 points, indicating a shift in momentum [4] - Alphabet's advantages include distribution, integration with popular products, and the ability to subsidize losses in generative AI [4][5] - OpenAI may face challenges securing funding if it continues to lose market share, needing approximately $100 billion over the next few years [4] Solar Industry - The solar industry is positioned to be the fastest solution for power deployment, outpacing natural gas turbines in terms of speed [10][11] - First Solar's new facilities have a turnaround time of 18 to 24 months, which is significantly faster than the ramp-up time for natural gas production [11] - Texas is leading in solar deployment due to favorable conditions, which will further enhance the industry's growth [11] Home Builders - Home Builder stocks are currently undervalued, trading at single-digit PE multiples, which presents a buying opportunity [15] - The expectation of two to three interest rate cuts could lower mortgage rates, encouraging homebuyers to enter the market [15][17] - Existing home sales have been low, but a recovery is anticipated, which would benefit home improvement retailers like Floor and Decor [21] Stock Picks - Prologis is highlighted for its potential in industrial real estate and data centers, with management noting compelling market conditions for rent and occupancy growth [18] - Array Technologies is recognized for its solar tracking technology, which enhances efficiency and reduces land use for solar installations [20] - Floor and Decor is seen as a low-risk buy due to its growth potential and current valuation, despite recent underperformance in the housing market [21]