Prediction: This Magnificent Vanguard ETF Will Beat the S&P 500 (Again) in 2026

Core Insights - The Vanguard Growth ETF has a strong historical performance, consistently outperforming the S&P 500 since its inception in 2004, with a compound annual return of 12.1% compared to the S&P 500's 10.5% [10] Group 1: ETF Overview - The Vanguard Growth ETF tracks the CRSP U.S. Large Cap Growth Index, which represents 85% of the total market capitalization of the CRSP U.S. Total Market Index, consisting of 3,498 companies [2][4] - The ETF holds around 150 stocks, with its top five positions accounting for 49.5% of its total portfolio value [5] Group 2: Performance Drivers - The five largest holdings in the Vanguard Growth ETF—Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon—have significantly contributed to its outperformance, delivering an average return of 363% since the AI boom began in early 2023, compared to the S&P 500's 80% gain [7][8] - The ETF's strategy includes maintaining less exposure to weaker sectors, such as financials and utilities, which have higher weightings in the S&P 500 compared to the Vanguard ETF [12] Group 3: Future Outlook - The technology sector, particularly AI stocks like Nvidia, is expected to continue driving market growth, positioning the Vanguard Growth ETF for potential outperformance against the S&P 500 in 2026 [13] - The ETF also includes defensive tech stocks with reliable revenue streams, such as Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and CrowdStrike, which could provide stability even if the AI segment experiences a pullback [13]