2026年中国创新增量在哪里？

Core Insights - The new economy, represented by technological innovation, has surpassed 18% of GDP, with new growth engines accelerating in strategic emerging industries, future industries, and the digital and AI transformation of traditional industries [3][4][25]. Group 1: Technological Innovation and Economic Growth - China aims to become an innovative power, with R&D expenditure reaching over 3.6 trillion yuan in 2024, accounting for 2.8% of GDP, approaching developed countries' average of 3.2% [4][26]. - The "three new" economies (including nine categories of new industries) accounted for 18.01% of GDP in 2024, an increase of 0.43 percentage points from the previous year, with a total value of 24.3 trillion yuan, growing by 6.7% [4][26]. - The government plans to expand investment in technology innovation and create a supportive ecosystem for scientific research and financial policies by 2026 [4][26]. Group 2: Strategic Emerging Industries - Strategic emerging industries are categorized into nine new industries, including new generation information technology, biotechnology, new energy, new materials, high-end equipment, new energy vehicles, green environmental protection, aerospace, and marine equipment [5][27]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes accelerating the development of strategic emerging industry clusters, particularly in new energy, new materials, and low-altitude economy [9][31]. Group 3: Future Industries and Market Potential - Future industries, such as brain-computer interfaces and embodied intelligence, are in early stages but show significant market potential, with predictions indicating the embodied intelligence market could exceed one trillion yuan by 2035 [14][36]. - The focus is shifting from technological novelty to commercial certainty in embodied intelligence applications across various sectors [14][36]. Group 4: AI Transformation in Traditional Industries - AI is transforming traditional manufacturing and service sectors, enhancing productivity, quality, and value addition [19][41]. - The core AI industry in China is projected to exceed 900 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 24%, and is expected to surpass 1.2 trillion yuan in 2025 [22][44]. Group 5: Investment and Financing Strategies - A multi-tiered financing service system is recommended to support innovation, including the establishment of a national-level intellectual property assessment center and a technology credit system [39]. - The National Venture Capital Guiding Fund, launched in late 2025, aims to invest in early-stage, small, and long-term hard technology projects, with a total funding of 100 billion yuan [40].