‘This time is different’: How AI is redefining the memory market

Core Viewpoint - Memory and storage stocks are currently the hottest trade in the market, driven by the transformative impact of artificial intelligence, leading to elevated valuations that investors are willing to accept despite historical comparisons being deemed irrelevant [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Sandisk Corp., Western Digital Corp., Micron Technology Inc., and Seagate Technology Holdings Plc have been the best-performing shares in the S&P 500 Index since the end of 2024, with Sandisk shares gaining 111% in 2026 [2][3]. - Seagate's earnings multiple is around 24, while Micron is trading at less than 11 times estimated earnings, despite a 36% gain in January [3]. - Analysts have revised Sandisk's net 2026 earnings per share estimates up by 172% in the past three months, with revenue expectations increasing by over 21% [8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The memory chip market has historically been cyclical, heavily influenced by the computer and mobile phone industries, leading to periodic gluts and lower valuations [5][6]. - The emergence of AI is fundamentally changing the demand landscape, with significant investments from major companies in memory chips and storage components, suggesting a more sustainable valuation environment [6][7]. - The index of spot prices for DRAM chips has soared recently, indicating accelerated growth and rising memory prices, which analysts believe could persist for two to three years [7]. Group 3: Analyst Sentiment - BNP Paribas upgraded Seagate to outperform, citing robust data center storage demand that could drive a longer upcycle than previously expected [8]. - Despite the positive outlook, Wall Street does not expect significant further climbs for these stocks, with Sandisk trading 32% above its average analyst price target, indicating weaker return potential [9]. - Caution is advised in the near term, as the consensus view suggests that while memory prices will remain strong, the rapid gains may lead to potential market risks [10][11].