大宗商品或迎“新周期” 拆解中欧周期优选的历史超额收益“密码”

Core Viewpoint - The precious and non-ferrous metals have shown strong performance since the beginning of 2026, with significant price increases in gold, silver, and various industrial metals, driven by macroeconomic factors and new industrial demands [1][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 21, 2026, the London spot gold price surpassed $4800 per ounce for the first time in history, while spot silver exceeded $90 per ounce, setting new historical highs [1]. - The China Securities Upstream Resource Industry Index has increased by over 12% year-to-date as of January 21, 2026, following a remarkable gain of over 56% in 2025 [1][7]. - The strong performance of resource products is attributed to a shift in global macro liquidity and the emergence of new industrial demands due to a new technological revolution [1]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The "new cycle" in resource products presents clear long-term investment opportunities, driven by rising re-inflation expectations, global resource security strategies, and expanding demand from emerging industries [1][7]. - The China Europe Cycle Preferred Mixed Fund has achieved nearly double investment returns in 2025, with a cumulative return of 98.41%, significantly outperforming its benchmark of 45.72% [1]. Group 3: Fund Management and Strategy - The fund manager, Ren Fei, utilizes macro insights to flexibly navigate industry trends within the economic cycle, focusing on a combination of "cyclical value + cyclical growth" [4]. - The fund's top ten holdings are heavily concentrated in the metal resource sector, particularly in upstream mining and smelting companies related to key metals such as cobalt, lithium, nickel, aluminum, copper, and gold [4][5]. - Ren Fei's extensive experience in cyclical research and investment management supports the fund's strong performance and ability to adapt to market changes [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is expected to focus on the non-ferrous sector in the first half of 2026, particularly in lithium carbonate and electrolytic aluminum, with a potential shift to domestic commodities in the second half if the Producer Price Index (PPI) turns positive [8]. - The re-inflation trend is anticipated to be a significant macro investment theme in 2026, with implications for asset allocation and stock market styles [7].