赤字重现！日本经济刺激计划打破28年预算平衡愿景

Core Viewpoint - Japan's recent economic stimulus plan has led to a deviation from the previously announced goal of achieving a fiscal surplus for the first time in 28 years, with the latest estimates indicating a deficit instead [1][2]. Group 1: Fiscal Outlook - The latest report from Japan's Cabinet Office forecasts a basic fiscal deficit of approximately 800 billion yen (about 5.1 billion USD) for the new fiscal year starting in April, which represents 0.1% of GDP [1]. - This deficit is the smallest since the fiscal target was established in 2001, contrasting sharply with the previous expectation of a surplus of 3.6 trillion yen [1]. - The broader accounting method used by the Cabinet Office includes additional expenditures beyond the initial budget, which was not the case in earlier assessments [1]. Group 2: Government Policy and Market Reaction - Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has shifted focus from achieving a fiscal surplus to reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio, which has raised concerns among investors regarding Japan's fiscal management [2]. - Recent spikes in long-term Japanese government bond yields, with the 40-year yield surpassing 4%, have been attributed to investor anxiety over the country's debt trajectory [2]. - Kishida's proposal to temporarily eliminate the food consumption tax ahead of the upcoming elections has further exacerbated market concerns about fiscal sustainability [2]. Group 3: Budget Projections - The narrow accounting method still allows for a projected surplus of 1.34 trillion yen for the fiscal year 2026, as stated by Kishida [4]. - The broader fiscal deficit is primarily driven by two factors: a new economic stimulus plan costing 5.2 trillion yen and increased local government spending of 1.2 trillion yen [5]. - The proposed tax cuts are expected to incur an annual fiscal cost of around 5 trillion yen, which has not yet been factored into the latest fiscal estimates [5].