杨华曌:市场分化缓和#国际黄金价格最新走势分析操作建议 避险情绪支撑金价

Core Viewpoint - The global risk appetite has increased following a softening of President Trump's stance on European tariffs and Greenland, leading to a pullback in gold prices from near the historical high of $4900. Meanwhile, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have diminished, providing support for the dollar and creating short-term pressure on gold prices. However, market caution prevails ahead of key U.S. economic data, limiting the downside potential for gold, with a medium-term bullish structure remaining intact [1][4]. Technical Analysis - The short-term pullback in gold is considered a normal correction following a strong upward trend. The 100-hour moving average is rising and currently positioned below the price at approximately $4720, serving as significant dynamic support. As long as gold prices remain above this moving average, the overall short-term trend is still bullish [1][4]. - In terms of wave structure, the recovery from a low of $4530 to a high of $4889 has established a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level around $4800, which acts as the first support. The 38.2% retracement level is near $4750; if this level is breached, it could increase the extent of the adjustment [1][4]. - Indicators show that the MACD remains below the zero line, but the green bars are converging, indicating a weakening of bearish momentum. The RSI has retreated to around 46, which is in a neutral zone, allowing for potential directional choices in the future. Overall, as long as the 38.2% retracement level is not effectively broken, gold prices are in a high-level consolidation rather than a trend reversal [1][4]. Trading Strategy - Day trading support levels are identified at 4815, 4785, and 4742, while resistance levels are at 4864, 4873, 4880, and 4900. A cautious approach is recommended, with a strategy to take profits when favorable [2][5]. - For intraday trading, resistance levels are set at 4860, 4870, and 4900, with support levels at 4815, 4785, and 4742. Traders are advised to consider light positions upon reaching these support and resistance points, with a suggested error margin of ±2 for initial targets of around 15 points, and a potential breakout target of 30 points [6].