“再武装”大势席卷全球 摩根大通高呼“逢低买入军工股”

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's recent report indicates that the short-term decline in global defense stocks, including European defense stocks, presents a significant buying opportunity in a sector that remains in a high-growth phase. The firm believes that the defense sector is suitable for "buying on dips" and that a new upward trajectory in global defense spending is in its early stages, potentially lasting another decade [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The Goldman Sachs index of European defense stocks fell by 3.0%, marking a three-day decline, with Rheinmetall AG, a major player, dropping 5.6% over the past three trading days [2]. - The defense sector is experiencing heightened sensitivity to geopolitical news, particularly after significant price increases in military stocks, with Rheinmetall's stock priced at over 40 times its expected earnings for the next year, double the valuation from a year ago [3]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to buy European defense stocks during any weakness, as the sector is in the early stages of a new global defense spending cycle, which could last around ten years [3]. - Citigroup shares a similar bullish stance on defense stocks, predicting that the "International Rearmament" trend will become a structural theme driving global defense demand for years to come [7]. Group 3: Geopolitical Context - The ongoing peace negotiations surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict remain a focal point for the defense market, with expectations that the war will continue until one side is exhausted [5]. - Analysts suggest that the current global geopolitical climate is characterized by chaos and restructuring, making defense stocks a more favorable investment compared to traditional defensive sectors [6]. Group 4: Key Players and Products - Raytheon Technologies (RTX) is highlighted as a core beneficiary in the international defense sector due to its higher exposure to international business and orders compared to peers [7]. - The defense market is seeing record international backlogs driven by increased NATO military spending and potential EU budget increases, indicating a structural upward shift in defense budgets [8].