GTC泽汇资本:黄金收益率飙升引发避险情绪

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market is at a crossroads of geopolitical turmoil and macroeconomic transformation, with geopolitical risks and economic concerns pushing sovereign bond yields to risky highs, highlighting the role of gold as a core safe-haven asset [1][3] Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - GTC ZEHUI Capital indicates that the deeper momentum in the global bond market stems from structural changes in the Japanese fixed income market, with rising Japanese bond yields significantly impacting global liquidity [4] - Recent data shows that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has fluctuated around 4.269% after reaching a high of 4.3%, which has suppressed investor risk appetite [4] - The high interest rate environment has notably pressured the stock market, causing major indices like the S&P 500 to perform weakly, while gold has strengthened, reaching approximately $4847.58 per ounce and briefly hitting a historical peak of $4888.54 [4] Group 2: Sector Rotation and Market Trends - The market's main theme for 2026 is undergoing a qualitative change, with the previous "Mag 7" era dominated by tech giants giving way to more resilient cyclical sectors such as energy, materials, small-cap stocks, and housing [2][4] - This shift is primarily driven by investors re-evaluating inflation expectations and the recovery of the real economy [2] Group 3: Policy and Economic Outlook - As 2026 is an election year, policy uncertainty and populist tendencies may amplify market volatility, with strong governmental pressure to maintain low interest rates to support livelihoods and housing affordability [5] - GTC ZEHUI Capital suggests that the government may intervene in excessively high market rates through influencing central bank decisions or utilizing government-sponsored entities to purchase bonds [5] - Despite short-term sell-offs driven by yield pressures, these often present long-term investment opportunities, and investors are advised to remain patient and observe policy implementation rhythms [5] Group 4: Future Market Volatility - GTC ZEHUI Capital forecasts that global market volatility will remain high, posing challenges to traditional asset pricing models [3][5] - Investors should focus on structural opportunities in the energy and materials sectors and use gold as a tool to hedge against policy risks, emphasizing the importance of calm observation and prudent positioning in a complex environment [5]