Recession Odds Now at 60% — 6 Things To Do With Your Money Right Now

Economic Outlook - J.P. Morgan projects a 60% chance of a global recession, driven by new U.S. tariffs that may act as a significant tax increase on businesses and consumers, raising costs across various goods and services [1][2] Supply Chain Impact - Tariffs increase input costs for companies, which are often passed on to consumers as higher prices, while retaliatory tariffs can negatively affect exports and global trade, leading to weakened business confidence and reduced economic activity [2] Business Behavior - Uncertainty in future costs and demand leads companies to pause hiring, cut capital spending, and delay expansion plans, which can quickly affect the labor market and consumer spending [3] Market Reactions - Increased market volatility reflects growing anxiety, with major financial institutions issuing cautionary notes; while the Federal Reserve may consider interest rate cuts, there is uncertainty about whether monetary policy can effectively counteract a trade-related slowdown [4] Risk Dynamics - The recession risk stems from a combination of policy changes, market reactions, and behavioral shifts that reinforce one another, rather than a single shock [5]