FXGT:通胀反弹风险加剧 风险资产下行压力

Core Viewpoint - The optimistic expectation of "persistent inflation decline" is facing severe challenges due to multiple factors, including evolving tariff policies, structural labor market shortages, and significant fiscal deficits, which may lead to a rise in the U.S. inflation rate above 4% this year [1][2][3] Inflation and Economic Factors - The potential rebound in inflation is seen as a significant threat to Bitcoin and other high-volatility risk assets, acting as a "Sword of Damocles" over them [1] - Delayed tariff cost transmission may contribute an additional 50 basis points to the headline inflation rate by mid-2026, despite a previous forecast of a decline to 2.7% in 2025 [3] - The fiscal deficit is expected to exceed 7% of GDP, creating friction between expansionary fiscal policies and tightening monetary demands [3] Monetary Policy Implications - The resilience of inflation will greatly limit the Federal Reserve's ability to act, with market expectations for a 50 to 75 basis point rate cut potentially being overly aggressive [4] - The recent rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.31%, a five-month high, has led to a noticeable pullback in Bitcoin prices, which are fluctuating around the $90,000 mark [4] - Investors are urged to reassess their positions in a potentially prolonged high borrowing cost environment, as policy-driven cost increases are expected to become the core logic of price volatility in the second half of the year [4] Market Outlook - If inflation returns to the predicted 4% range, risk assets may undergo a painful transition from "rate cut trading" to "defensive trading" [4] - The market's appetite for risk assets has significantly decreased in light of the 10-year yield reaching a milestone high [4] - Maintaining prudent risk control and closely monitoring demand-pull inflation pressures from the labor market will be crucial for capital preservation in the coming quarters [4]