券商业绩预喜，股价为何滞涨？

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage sector's performance has significantly lagged behind the overall market, with a mere 6% increase in the brokerage concept index compared to over 18% gains in major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index in 2025, despite a more than 60% year-on-year increase in net profits for 42 listed brokerages [1][3]. Group 1: Performance Discrepancy - The brokerage concept index underperformed the market, with a 6% increase compared to over 18% for the Shanghai Composite Index and nearly 50% for the ChiNext Index [3]. - Despite a strong year-on-year growth of over 60% in net profits for listed brokerages, their stock prices have not reflected this performance, indicating a stark divergence between earnings and market valuation [3][4]. Group 2: Reasons for Underperformance - The brokerage sector's stock prices often move ahead of actual earnings, leading to a situation where the market has already priced in future growth, resulting in profit-taking when actual results are released [4]. - A structural shift in the A-share market has favored high-growth sectors like technology, causing funds to flow away from traditional cyclical stocks like brokerages, which are perceived as lacking short-term explosive growth narratives [4][5]. - The cyclical and fragile nature of brokerage earnings, heavily reliant on market volatility and trading activity, has diminished their growth appeal, with a significant portion of revenue tied to self-operated businesses [4][5]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Strategy - Investors are advised to remain patient and not to rush into buying brokerage stocks without clear catalysts, such as a shift in fund flows back to undervalued cyclical stocks or favorable policy developments [9]. - For investors currently holding brokerage stocks, it is suggested to assess the fundamentals and consider holding or gradually increasing positions in well-capitalized, leading brokerages while being cautious with smaller firms [8][9]. - New investors should focus on long-term trends in the brokerage industry, including financial technology applications and international business expansion, while being selective about which stocks to invest in [9].