全球资金重仓美国 “卖出美国”交易可行性几何？

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around "selling America" has intensified, with analysts believing that the theme will not disappear despite temporary market calm following news of a potential agreement regarding Greenland by President Trump [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - Last year, concerns about "de-dollarization" arose, fearing that Trump's tariff-centric trade policies would lead global investors to significantly reduce their allocation to U.S. assets. However, overseas investors net purchased U.S. securities worth $1.27 trillion in the first 11 months of last year, largely driven by the AI boom [1] - As of now, overseas investors hold approximately $68.9 trillion in U.S. assets, while the U.S. holds about $41.3 trillion in foreign assets, resulting in a net international investment position of approximately $27.6 trillion, a historical high both in nominal terms and as a percentage of GDP (over 90%) [1] Group 2: Investor Behavior and Adjustments - There is a perception among investors that the highly concentrated allocation in U.S. assets, particularly in equities, poses a risk, especially in light of Trump's policies causing unease in Europe [2] - Short-term large-scale withdrawal from U.S. assets is considered unlikely, with some Nordic pension funds signaling adjustments, but their impact is deemed limited [3] - Historical trends suggest that even if overseas investors gradually adjust their U.S. Treasury holdings, it may not lead to significant market turmoil, as demand shifts can mitigate the impact of reductions from a single region [3] Group 3: Risks and Capital Flows - The real risk may not stem from large-scale capital outflows but rather from a slowdown in the inflow of overseas funds, which could depress U.S. asset prices and undermine the narrative of "American exceptionalism" [4] - The U.S. continues to face a substantial current account deficit, requiring over $1 trillion in net capital inflows annually to compensate. In the first 11 months of last year, overseas investors net purchased $1.27 trillion in U.S. securities, with stock investments reaching $663 billion, significantly higher than previous levels [4] - European funds remain a crucial support for U.S. Treasuries, accounting for about 80% of foreign purchases from April to November last year [5] Group 4: Gradual Rebalancing - There are signs of localized adjustments, with some Swedish and Danish pension funds reducing their U.S. Treasury holdings. However, analysts suggest that a gradual rebalancing is more likely than an aggressive "sell America" approach [5] - Despite ongoing discussions about "selling America," there have been no clear signs of large-scale asset sales by European investors to date [5]