3 Air-Freight & Cargo Stocks to Monitor in a Prosperous Industry

Industry Overview - The Zacks Transportation-Air Freight and Cargo industry is facing ongoing supply-chain disruptions and a challenging macroeconomic environment characterized by high inflation and interest rates, leading to a decline in package volumes [1][6] - Companies in this industry provide air delivery and freight services, with many offering specialized transportation and logistics solutions, directly correlating their performance with the overall health of the economy [3] Key Trends - Despite challenges, there are growth opportunities for companies focusing on operational efficiency and cost-cutting measures, with firms like UPS, FedEx, and GXO Logistics capitalizing on these trends [2] - The industry is prioritizing shareholder returns, with companies increasing dividends and buybacks to enhance shareholder value; FedEx announced a 5.1% increase in its quarterly dividend for 2025 [4] - Cost-cutting initiatives are crucial as the industry faces elevated inflation levels, particularly in labor, freight, and fuel costs; FedEx reported better-than-expected results in Q2 of fiscal 2026 due to these efforts [5] Demand and E-commerce - A slowdown in shipping demand, especially in Asia and Europe, is a significant concern, with geopolitical uncertainty and high inflation negatively impacting consumer sentiment [6] - E-commerce continues to be a strong growth driver, supported by the convenience of online shopping and the ongoing digital transformation, despite a slowdown from pandemic peak levels [7] Industry Performance and Valuation - The Zacks Air Freight and Cargo industry holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 97, placing it in the top 40% of 244 Zacks industries, indicating positive near-term prospects [8] - The industry's earnings estimate for 2026 has increased by 1.5% since November 2025, reflecting growing analyst confidence in earnings growth potential [9] - Over the past year, the industry has underperformed the S&P 500, declining by 6.3% compared to the S&P 500's growth of 14.9% [11] - The industry is currently trading at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA of 9.8X, lower than the S&P 500's 18.8X and the sector's 10.79X [14] Company Highlights - UPS is recognized for its shareholder-friendly activities, including dividends and buybacks, and has shown strong free cash flow generation, supporting its bottom line and e-commerce demand [17][18] - FedEx is noted for its solid liquidity position and cost-cutting measures, with earnings surpassing consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters [21] - GXO Logistics has consistently exceeded earnings estimates, benefiting from increased e-commerce and logistics capabilities, with shares rising by 26% over the past year [23][26]