Medifast's Q4 Guidance Remains Weak: When Does Growth Return?

Core Insights - Medifast, Inc. (MED) has provided weak guidance for Q4 2025, projecting revenue between $65 million and $80 million and a loss per share ranging from 70 cents to $1.25, indicating a significant decline from Q4 2024's revenue of $119 million and adjusted earnings per share of 10 cents [1][9] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Medifast's revenue fell by 36.2% year over year to $89.4 million, primarily due to a 35% decrease in active earning coaches, which totaled approximately 19,500 by the end of the quarter. The average revenue per active coach also declined by 1.9% year over year to $4,585 [2][9] Strategic Initiatives - To facilitate recovery, Medifast is transitioning from a weight loss company to a leader in the broader metabolic health sector, focusing on metabolic synchronization to address metabolic dysfunction by targeting visceral fat while preserving 98% of lean mass. This strategy is significant as 90% of Americans are metabolically unhealthy, and a new product line supporting this approach is expected to launch next year [3] - The company is adapting to the increasing prevalence of GLP-1 medications, with 61% of coaches having experience with GLP-1 users and 22% of the client base having utilized these drugs. Medifast positions its program as a vital lifestyle companion for these users while rightsizing operations to support margin expansion as revenue stabilizes [4] Growth Outlook - Medifast's management believes that improvements in client acquisition and retention will lead to growth in revenue per active earning coach, which historically results in coach growth after six to nine months, followed by overall revenue growth within one to two quarters. Revenue per active earning coach is expected to improve as early as Q4 2025, with a minimum expectation of improvement within the next six months, indicating initial signs of stabilization [5] Market Position - Medifast's shares have declined by 18.5% over the past six months, compared to a 15.6% decline in the industry. The company currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [6] - From a valuation perspective, Medifast trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 0.37, significantly lower than the industry average of 1.10 [8]