AGNC Investment Q4 Earnings Coming Up: Here's What to Expect

Core Viewpoint - AGNC Investment Corp. is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on January 26, with earnings per share estimated at 37 cents, unchanged from the prior-year quarter [1][3][8] Group 1: Q3 2025 Performance - The third-quarter 2025 results showed a decline in tangible net book value per share and net interest spread, although there was a positive rise in average asset yield on the portfolio [1] - AGNC's earnings have outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in one of the last four quarters, missing three times with an average negative surprise of 5.50% [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Q4 Performance - Mortgage rates declined significantly in Q4 2025 after the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates, leading to reduced borrowing costs for homebuyers and a modest improvement in refinancing activity and mortgage origination volumes [4] - A large portion of AGNC's mortgage-backed securities portfolio is expected to have stable constant prepayment rates, positively influencing net premium amortization and supporting growth in interest income, with the estimate for interest income at $959.7 million, a 6.3% increase from the prior quarter [5] - Low fixed-income volatility during Q4 is likely to have supported tighter mortgage spreads and steadier book value performance, with banks and foreign investors reemerging as buyers of agency MBS, providing incremental demand support [6] Group 3: Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for AGNC, as it has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [9][10]