Southwest Airlines Stock to Report Q4 Earnings: Is a Beat in Store?

Core Viewpoint - Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 28, with a history of positive earnings surprises, averaging a beat of 259.13% over the last four quarters [1][2]. Financial Performance Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LUV's fourth-quarter 2025 revenues is $7.52 billion, reflecting an 8.47% year-over-year growth [4]. - Management anticipates a 1% to 3% increase in unit revenues year-over-year, with capacity expected to rise nearly 6% [4]. - Passenger revenues are projected to increase by 7.8% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, driven by strong domestic air-travel demand [5]. Earnings Estimates and Influencing Factors - The earnings estimate for LUV has been revised downward by 24.66% to 55 cents per share, indicating a 1.79% decline from the previous year [6][7]. - Factors such as geopolitical uncertainty, tariff pressures, and persistent inflation are expected to negatively impact LUV's operations [6][7]. - Increased labor costs and airport expenses are anticipated to pressure margins, with operating costs expected to rise by 5.9% year-over-year [9]. Cost Management and Efficiency - LUV expects its CASM-X (cost per available seat mile excluding special items) to increase by 1.5% to 2.5%, or remain flat to up 1% when excluding expected book gains from fleet transactions [10]. - The company is focused on driving efficiencies to mitigate inflationary pressures and achieve multi-year cost reduction targets [10]. Earnings Prediction Model - The earnings prediction model indicates a potential earnings beat for LUV, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +7.27% and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [11].