Two Measures of Inflation: November 2025

Core Inflation and Federal Reserve Actions - Inflation remains a significant concern, with core PCE at 2.8% and core CPI at 2.6%, both above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1][2] - The Federal Reserve uses PCE data as its primary inflation gauge and emphasizes core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices [2][3] - In its latest meeting, the Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive cut and the lowest level since November 2022 [3] Future Expectations and Market Sentiment - The Fed is expected to hold rates steady in the upcoming meeting, with a 95% likelihood of maintaining current rates according to the CME FedWatch Tool [4] Comparison of PCE and CPI - Core PCE is preferred over core CPI due to its lower volatility, making it a more reliable indicator for the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment [6] - Historically, core CPI has shown more volatility compared to core PCE, which has implications for inflation management [7][10] - As of November 2025, core CPI has grown 983% since 1960, while core PCE has grown 705%, indicating a significant difference in inflationary growth rates [11]