华为登顶，吃了谁的蛋糕？

Core Insights - Huawei has regained the top position in the Chinese smartphone market with a shipment of 46.7 million units and a market share of 16.4% in 2025, although this is significantly lower than its peak of 124.9 million units and 38.3% market share in 2020 [2][3][6] - The competition among the top three manufacturers—Huawei, Apple, and Vivo—is intense, with their shipment volumes closely aligned, indicating a highly competitive market landscape [4][7] - Despite Huawei's return to the top, its shipment volume has decreased by approximately 2% year-on-year, reflecting a broader market decline [5][6] Shipment and Market Share - In 2025, the top five smartphone manufacturers in China by shipment volume are: 1. Huawei: 46.7 million units (16.4%) 2. Apple: 46.2 million units (16.2%) 3. Vivo: 46.1 million units (16.2%) 4. Xiaomi: 43.8 million units (15.4%) 5. OPPO: 43.4 million units (15.3%) [3][6] - The overall smartphone market in China saw a slight decline, with total shipments of 284.4 million units in 2025, down 0.6% from 2024 [6] Activation vs. Shipment - Huawei's activation volume ranks fifth, significantly lower than its shipment volume, indicating potential inventory issues with a gap of over 3 million units between shipments and activations [10][12] - In contrast, other brands like Vivo, Apple, and OPPO have activation volumes closely matching their shipment volumes, suggesting healthier inventory management [12][10] Competitive Landscape - The competition is not only between Huawei and Apple but also includes Vivo, which has maintained a strong presence in the market, and Xiaomi, which has shown positive growth [30][34] - OPPO has also demonstrated resilience, achieving a year-on-year shipment growth of nearly 30% in 2025, indicating a robust competitive strategy [34] Product Strategy and Pricing - Huawei's successful return is attributed to its strong product lineup, including the Mate 70 and Pura 80 series, which have seen significant sales despite the absence of advanced 3nm chips [21][24] - The company has strategically reduced prices on key models, with reductions exceeding 800 yuan, making its products more competitive in a market where other brands have raised prices [27][29] Future Outlook - The smartphone market in 2026 is expected to face challenges, including rising storage costs and a potential decline in overall shipments, which could reshape the competitive dynamics [36][38] - The ability of manufacturers to adapt to these changes and maintain product appeal will be crucial for sustaining market positions in the coming years [38]