Blackstone's BREIT: Private Equity Outperformance Is Not What It Appears

Core Viewpoint - Blackstone's BREIT claims an 8.1% return in 2025, significantly outperforming public REITs, which had modest returns, with the Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ) returning 4.17% including dividends [1][3]. Performance Comparison - Blackstone attributes its outperformance to superior asset selection, claiming a 70% outperformance over public REITs, which is a relative measure rather than an absolute one [3][4]. - The total return for public REITs is calculated based on market prices and dividends, while BREIT's return is based on internal evaluations of net asset value (NAV), making direct comparisons challenging [6][9]. Sector Performance - BREIT's portfolio includes significant exposure to rental housing, industrial, and data centers, with industrial being the standout performer in 2025, up about 17% [13][18]. - Single-family rentals and multifamily apartments faced challenges due to increased supply, leading to declines in major players like American Homes 4 Rent and Camden [14][16]. - Data centers, comprising 21% of BREIT's portfolio, suffered despite strong fundamentals, with major companies like Equinix and Digital Realty experiencing significant drops in stock prices [19][20]. Market Dynamics - Publicly traded REITs are trading at a substantial discount to NAV, with the median REIT trading at 83% of NAV, indicating that BREIT's reported outperformance may be more about the relative decline of public REITs than actual superior performance [27][28]. - The article suggests that both BREIT and public REITs performed reasonably well fundamentally, but the difference in reported returns is due to differing methodologies [29]. Investment Considerations - BREIT is currently trading at a premium to public REITs, which may position it for underperformance in the future [35]. - Investors are encouraged to consider redeeming shares of BREIT at NAV and reinvesting in public REITs, which may offer more attractive valuations [37].