买铜真能稳赚钱？交易所出手降温

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the ongoing high copper prices, which have become a focal point of debate among institutions regarding their sustainability and future trends [1][2][3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has announced adjustments to the trading margin ratios and price fluctuation limits for copper and aluminum futures, effective January 22, 2026, in response to high volatility and to maintain market stability [1] - Analysts from Guotai Junan Futures suggest that the adjustments are aimed at preventing systemic risks and guiding rational market participation during a sensitive period before the Chinese New Year [1] Group 2 - Research from Lianhe Securities indicates that the global supply of copper is expected to face structural bottlenecks due to the end of a concentrated capacity expansion cycle, leading to a supply gap that could drive prices higher [2] - Huayuan Securities notes that while short-term copper prices may experience fluctuations due to inventory accumulation and delayed tariff expectations, long-term supply disruptions could lead to a shift from a balanced market to a shortage [2] - Goldman Sachs has stated that the recent surge in copper prices is unlikely to be sustained, predicting a return to fundamental pricing as speculative behaviors driven by tariff expectations wane, with a revised surplus forecast for 2026 [3]