乘联分会：预计1月狭义乘用车零售总市场为180万辆左右 新能源渗透率达44.4%

Core Viewpoint - The retail market for narrow passenger vehicles in January is projected to be around 1.8 million units, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 20.4% but a slight year-on-year increase, with new energy vehicle sales expected to reach approximately 800,000 units and a penetration rate of 44.4% [1][2] Group 1: Manufacturer Sales Trends - Most manufacturers have a neutral to optimistic sales outlook for January, with major manufacturers, accounting for nearly 80% of total market sales, setting retail targets that are flat or slightly increased compared to the same period last year [2] - The narrow passenger vehicle retail market size for January is estimated at 1.8 million units, with a month-on-month decrease of 20.4% and a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [2] Group 2: Weekly Sales Trends - The market showed weak performance at the beginning of January due to the halving of the vehicle purchase tax subsidy, with an average daily retail of 30,000 units in the first week, reflecting declines both year-on-year and month-on-month [3] - Retail activity slightly recovered in the second week, with an average daily retail of 50,000 units, and further improved in the third week to an estimated 57,000 units as local trade-in subsidies began to take effect [3] - By the fourth week, with the implementation of subsidy policies and increased first-time purchase demand, the market is expected to regain growth momentum, with daily retail projected to reach 120,000 units [3] Group 3: Market Transition and Policy Impact - The Chinese economy is showing resilience and vitality, with total retail sales of consumer goods exceeding 50 trillion yuan, growing by 3.7% year-on-year, and the used car trade-in policy has significantly impacted the market, with over 11.5 million vehicles traded in [4] - A new round of trade-in subsidies for 2026 has been initiated, which is expected to provide stable support for the automotive market throughout the year [4] - The market is currently in a critical transition period due to policy changes, particularly the adjustment of new energy vehicle purchase tax subsidies from full exemption to a 50% reduction, leading to increased consumer hesitation and lower market heat in January [4]