Seeking Alpha·2026-01-22 22:30Core Viewpoint - Blackstone's BREIT claims an 8.1% return in 2025, significantly outperforming public REITs, which had modest returns, with the Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ) returning 4.17% including dividends [1][3]. Performance Comparison - Blackstone attributes its outperformance to superior asset selection, claiming a 70% outperformance over public REITs, which is a relative measure rather than a direct percentage point comparison [3][4]. - The total return for public REITs is calculated based on market prices and dividends, while private equity returns, like those of BREIT, are based on internal evaluations of net asset value (NAV), making comparisons less straightforward [6][9]. Sector Performance - BREIT's portfolio includes significant exposure to rental housing, industrial, and data centers, with industrial being the standout performer in 2025, up about 17% [13][18]. - Single-family rentals and multifamily apartments faced challenges in 2025 due to increased supply, leading to declines in major players like American Homes 4 Rent and Camden [14][16]. - Data centers, comprising 21% of BREIT's portfolio, suffered despite strong fundamentals, with major companies like Equinix and Digital Realty experiencing significant drops in stock prices [19][20]. Market Dynamics - Publicly traded REITs are trading at a substantial discount to NAV, with the median REIT trading at 83% of NAV, indicating that BREIT's reported outperformance is more about the relative decline of public REITs than actual superior performance [27][28]. - The article suggests that both BREIT and public REITs performed reasonably well fundamentally, but the difference in reported returns stems from differing methodologies [29]. Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to consider the premium at which BREIT is trading compared to public REITs, which may lead to underperformance going forward [35][36]. - BREIT's redeemable shares allow investors to cash out at NAV, presenting an opportunity to reinvest in public REITs at more attractive valuations [37]. Blackstone's Position - Despite concerns about BREIT's performance, Blackstone has a strong track record of raising assets under management (AUM), which remains a key driver for the company [38].