从“特朗普交易”到“日本寡妇”：全球金融市场目前最火的八种策略

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of unconventional geopolitical actions by President Trump and Japan's election strategies on financial markets, leading to significant trading opportunities and risks. Group 1: Market Strategies - Basis trading has gained attention due to rising government debt, with an estimated growth of about 75% since 2019, reaching approximately $1.5 trillion [4] - Yield curve steepening trades have become popular as investors anticipate economic growth and inflation, with long-term bonds facing increased risks [5][6] - Arbitrage trading has thrived due to low foreign exchange volatility, with returns on emerging market currency strategies reaching about 18%, the highest since 2009 [8][11] Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - Trump's threats of new trade wars and subsequent retractions have created volatility in the markets, affecting long-term bonds and leading to temporary recoveries [7][15] - The "sell America" strategy has fluctuated, driven by Trump's policies, with significant impacts on the S&P 500 index and U.S. Treasury prices [15][20] Group 3: Japanese Market Dynamics - The "widowmaker" trade, which involves shorting Japanese government bonds, is experiencing a revival due to changes in monetary policy and fiscal discipline, despite its historical association with losses [22][26] - Japan's long-term bond yields are at their highest levels in decades, raising concerns about borrowing demand and market stability [26]