WTO总干事答一财：面对非贸易议题冲击，推动对话是多边贸易体系能提供的最现实路径

Core Insights - The global trade system is facing significant challenges due to geopolitical conflicts and increased tariffs, yet the multilateral trade framework remains operational, with approximately 72% of trade still conducted under WTO rules, down from about 80% before the escalation of tariffs [1][3] Group 1: Trade Growth and AI Impact - In 2025, global goods trade is projected to grow by 2.4%, significantly higher than the previous forecast of 0.9%, driven by preemptive shipping to mitigate tariff risks and the rapid growth of AI-related products [4][5] - Approximately 42% of the global trade increment in 2025 will be driven by AI-related goods, supported by the Information Technology Agreement, which maintains zero or low tariffs on a trade volume of about $3 trillion [5] Group 2: Future Trade Projections - For 2026, the WTO forecasts a cautious growth rate of about 0.5% for goods trade, as the previous year's "rush" in trade behavior is unlikely to continue, and tariff impacts will become more pronounced [5] - In contrast, the service trade outlook is more robust, with an expected growth rate of about 4.5% in 2026, and digital delivery services projected to grow by 5.6% [5] Group 3: Reform Consensus and Challenges - There is a growing consensus among WTO members on the need for reform, with discussions focusing on decision-making mechanisms, development issues, and fair competition environments [6][7] - The current decision-making process, which relies on consensus, has led to inefficiencies, prompting discussions on how to maintain this principle while increasing flexibility for some members [6] - Development issues, particularly the application of special and differential treatment for developing members, are a focal point of the reform discussions [6][7]