中信证券：春节旺季来临，看好白酒底部配置机会

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is expected to focus on consumer engagement and education as it approaches the peak marketing season during the Spring Festival, with a stable sales outlook for 2026 [1][2][6] Summary by Sections Baijiu Industry - The baijiu industry is preparing for the Spring Festival marketing activities, with channels learning from leading companies' multi-dimensional reforms [2][3] - The actual sales of baijiu during the 2026 Spring Festival are anticipated to remain stable due to various factors, including a longer holiday and improved consumer education [1][6] - There is a clear trend of gradual recovery in the baijiu sector, presenting bottom-fishing opportunities for investors [1][6] Beer Industry - The beer industry is projected to experience a mild recovery from a low base in 2026, with a focus on strong channel control and brand premium capabilities among leading companies [1][4][6] - The total beer production from January to November 2025 was 33.18 million kiloliters, showing a slight decline of 0.3% year-on-year, indicating a stable yet competitive market [4] - The industry is shifting towards value chain and product quality, with a growing demand for high-quality living among consumers [4] Investment Strategy - Recent meetings among leading liquor companies indicate a commitment to adjustments, reforms, and channel rebalancing, which is beneficial for the long-term health of the industry [6] - Measures such as controlling shipments and reducing burdens on distributors are being implemented to lower channel inventory [6] - The overall trend for the liquor industry is expected to be stable in volume with price increases, particularly for leading brands like Wuliangye as demand recovers [6]