Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-23 01:33Group 1 - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, focusing on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, with room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions this year [4][14] - China's GDP is projected to grow by 5.0% in 2025, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan, with industrial added value increasing by 5.9% and retail sales growing by 3.7% [4][14] - The total population in China is expected to decrease by 3.39 million in 2025, with a birth rate of 7.92 million and a death rate of 11.31 million [4][14] Group 2 - In 2025, China's crude steel production is expected to be 96.081 million tons, a decrease of 4.4%, while steel production will increase by 3.1% to 144.612 million tons [4][14] - Steel exports are projected to reach a record high of 11.9019 million tons in 2025, marking a 7.5% increase year-on-year [4][14] - The average profit margin for 247 steel mills is reported at 40.69%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous week [5][15] Group 3 - The total inventory of five major steel products is 12.5708 million tons, with an increase of 10.07% week-on-week [5][15] - Rebar production has increased by 9.25 million tons to 199.55 million tons, while hot-rolled steel production has slightly decreased to 6.206 million tons [5][15] - The market for rebar is experiencing weak demand despite increased supply, leading to a continued narrow fluctuation in steel prices [5][15][16] Group 4 - The hot-rolled steel production has decreased slightly due to maintenance at one steel plant in North China and slow recovery at another in East China, with total inventory decreasing at a historically high rate for the lunar new year period [6][16] - Traders are adopting a cautious approach with low inventory and quick turnover strategies, anticipating continued weak supply and demand [6][16] - The price of rebar is expected to fluctuate within the range of 3100-3200 yuan/ton, while hot-rolled steel is projected to range between 3250-3350 yuan/ton [7][17]