金瑞期货金属早评：地缘持续紧张，金银再创新高

Macro Analysis - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity [5][31] - The PBOC will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation on January 23, with a net injection of 700 billion yuan, marking the 11th consecutive month of increased operations [5][31] - U.S. President Trump stated that the Greenland agreement will grant the U.S. "all desired military access," and warned of "strong retaliation" if European countries sell U.S. assets due to tariff threats related to Greenland [5][31] - The U.S. GDP for Q3 2025 grew at an annualized rate of 4.4%, surpassing the initial estimate of 4.3%, marking the fastest growth in nearly two years [5][31] - The core PCE price index in the U.S. rose by 2.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, both in line with expectations [6][31] Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures rose by 2.09% to $4938.40 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 3.86% to $96.22 per ounce, amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Greenland [7][33] - The market for silver remains tight, with resilient investment demand, and both gold and silver are experiencing high volatility with prices in a wide fluctuation range [7][33] - The long-term core drivers for precious metal prices remain stable, influenced by factors such as sovereign debt issues, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases [7][33] - The expected trading range for COMEX gold is between $4650 and $4900 per ounce, while for COMEX silver it is between $90 and $100 per ounce [7][33] Copper - LME copper closed at $12840.0 per ton, up 0.62%, with ongoing tightness in copper supply due to strikes at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile and delays in the expansion of the Mirador copper mine in Ecuador [8][34] - The overall downstream consumption of copper is showing signs of stabilization after a price correction, although January's consumption remains weaker than seasonal trends [8][34] - The market is advised to monitor U.S. import volumes, which may impact future supply tightness expectations [8][34] Aluminum - LME aluminum closed at $3137.5, up 0.64%, with the Shanghai market maintaining a strong position around 24,000 yuan [11][37] - The market is experiencing a phase of active stocking ahead of the holiday, with aluminum ingot inventories increasing moderately [11][37] - The expected trading range for aluminum prices is between 23,500 and 24,300 yuan [11][37] Lead - LME lead rose by 0.44% to $2033.5 per ton, while Shanghai lead remained stable at 17100 yuan per ton, with the market showing a weak demand outlook [12][38] - The lead market is expected to face further accumulation, with domestic lead inventories continuing to decline [12][38] - The anticipated trading range for lead prices is between 17,000 and 17,800 yuan in Shanghai and between $1950 and $2100 in London [12][38] Zinc - LME zinc experienced fluctuations, closing at $3233, up 1.83%, with market sentiment boosted by the PBOC's comments on liquidity [16][41] - The market is advised to adopt a cautious approach due to increasing macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [16][41] Nickel - LME nickel closed at $18100, up 0.7%, with ongoing high volatility in prices due to supply reduction narratives from Indonesia [17][41] - The expected trading range for nickel prices is between 130,000 and 160,000 yuan in Shanghai [17][41] Tin - LME tin rose by 2.66% to $52660 per ton, while Shanghai tin closed at 417250 yuan per ton, with supply recovery expectations amid cautious market sentiment [20][44] - The anticipated trading range for tin prices is expected to remain strong due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and export demands [20][44] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rebounded by 0.92% to 1684 yuan per ton, with steel mills increasing their coking coal inventories [46] - The market is expected to experience weak supply and demand dynamics in the short term due to high inventory levels in the steel industry [46] Polysilicon - Polysilicon prices increased by 2.40% to 50515 yuan per ton, supported by supply reductions and improved fundamentals [47] - The expected trading range for polysilicon prices is between 49000 and 51000 yuan [47] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices rose by 2.55% to 168780 yuan per ton, with a decrease in inventory and production [48] - The market is expected to perform better than anticipated in Q1, with prices likely to remain strong [48]