华泰期货：持货商存在挺价情绪 铜价或逐步企稳

Market Overview - On January 22, 2026, the main copper futures contract opened at 100,550 CNY/ton and closed at 100,700 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.57% from the previous trading day [2] - The night session saw the main copper contract open at 99,800 CNY/ton and close at 100,270 CNY/ton, down 0.43% from the afternoon close [2] Spot Market - SMM reported that the spot price for 1 electrolytic copper was quoted at a discount of 260 to 80 CNY/ton against the current month contract, with an average discount of 170 CNY/ton, a slight increase of 10 CNY/ton from the previous day [3] - The spot price range was between 99,740 and 100,400 CNY/ton, with trading activity gradually improving and downstream purchasing sentiment recovering [3][13] Economic and Geopolitical News - U.S. President Trump stated that the Greenland agreement would grant the U.S. "all desired military access," and threatened strong retaliation if European countries sold U.S. assets due to tariff threats related to Greenland [4] - The U.S. GDP for Q3 2025 was revised to an annualized growth of 4.4%, surpassing the initial estimate of 4.3%, marking the fastest growth in nearly two years [4] - The core PCE price index for November rose by 2.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, aligning with expectations [5] Mining Sector Developments - Chile's newly elected President José Antonio Kast caused a stir by merging the mining department into the economy ministry, raising concerns about the government's understanding of the mining sector's importance [5][15] - The new minister, Daniel Man, lacks direct mining experience, leading to criticism regarding the decision's implications for the mining industry's leadership [15] Copper Supply and Demand - As of January 20, 2026, copper inventories at the Comex exceeded 500,000 tons for the first time, reaching 554,904 short tons (approximately 50.34 million tons), a 1.3% increase from January 16 [6] - This inventory level is historically high, being more than three times that of LME copper inventories and close to one-third of the projected U.S. refined copper consumption of 1.58 million tons in 2024 [6] - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a global refined copper production of 2.37 million tons and consumption of 2.28 million tons for November 2025, resulting in a surplus of 9.4 million tons [6][16] Inventory and Warehouse Data - LME warehouse stocks changed by 3,100 tons to 168,250 tons, while SHFE stocks decreased by 2,408 tons to 143,173 tons [7][17] - Domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory stood at 330,200 tons, a slight increase of 800 tons from the previous week [17] Market Strategy - The outlook for copper is neutral, with recent tariffs on semiconductors affecting demand for non-ferrous metals, including copper, which has seen limited price corrections despite high prices and weak downstream demand [8] - Current copper prices are expected to fluctuate within a range of 99,500 CNY/ton to 110,000 CNY/ton [8]