长江有色：锡价狂飙！“算力金属”引爆新一轮商品牛市 23日锡价或大涨

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market is entering a new cycle driven by macroeconomic policies and supply-demand dynamics, with tin prices experiencing significant increases due to a combination of factors including Federal Reserve policies and strong demand from emerging technologies [1][2]. Group 1: Supply Side - Global tin supply is facing long-term constraints and short-term disruptions, with a static reserve-to-production ratio of approximately 16 years, and insufficient capital expenditure leading to limited new capacity [2]. - Key mining regions are experiencing increased tension: Myanmar's production recovery and ore quality are below expectations, while Indonesia's new mining permit policies are delaying export quotas, tightening spot market supply [2]. - Domestic processing fees for tin concentrate remain low, limiting smelting capacity, and some smelters are opting for maintenance ahead of holidays, contributing to restricted refined tin output [2]. Group 2: Demand Side - The demand structure for tin is undergoing a significant transformation, with traditional electronics showing weakness while emerging technologies like AI, semiconductors, and new energy vehicles are driving strong growth [2]. - The tin usage per unit in AI servers and new energy vehicles is significantly higher than in traditional products, sustaining high demand for high-end tin materials [2]. - Recent adjustments in export tax policies for photovoltaic products have triggered a "rush to export" in the domestic market, further amplifying the demand for tin in photovoltaic solder strips [2]. Group 3: Industry Chain and Market - The tight supply-demand balance is causing significant differentiation across the industry chain, with upstream mining companies enjoying high profits and a reluctance to sell, particularly for high-grade tin [3]. - The midstream smelting sector is facing profit compression due to high raw material costs and low processing fees, leading to limited operating rates [3]. - The downstream processing sector is experiencing a "two extremes" scenario, where small solder companies are constrained by high raw material prices, while leading firms in photovoltaic and semiconductor sectors maintain a strong demand for high-purity tin [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Tin prices are expected to maintain a strong oscillating pattern in the short term, supported by rigid supply, emerging demand, and macro liquidity expectations [3]. - While support factors are clear, risks such as potential regulatory measures to curb excessive speculation and the cumulative demand suppression effect of high prices should be monitored [3]. - Long-term, tin's strategic position as a key "computing metal" in new information technology and energy transitions remains solid, with a tight supply-demand balance likely to persist, keeping price levels relatively high [3].