全国碳市场：运行平稳，“双力”待增

Core Insights - The national carbon market in China has completed three compliance cycles by the end of 2025, with a total trading volume of 865 million tons and a transaction value of 57.633 billion yuan, indicating a stable and gradually improving market operation [1] Group 1: Market Expansion and Characteristics - The most significant highlight of the national carbon market in 2025 is the first expansion, which includes the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries into quota management, enhancing market effectiveness [2] - The number of covered enterprises increased from approximately 2,200 to about 3,700, and the covered emissions rose from around 5 billion tons to over 8 billion tons, accounting for about 66% of national CO2 emissions [2] - The types of greenhouse gases under control have expanded to include perfluorocarbons (CF4) and hexafluoroethane (C2F6), in addition to CO2 [2] Group 2: Voluntary Emission Reduction Market - The voluntary emission reduction trading market has made substantial progress, with 18 methodologies published covering various sectors, providing methodological support for project development and emission reduction accounting [3] - By the end of 2025, 33 voluntary reduction projects were registered, with a total reduction volume exceeding 17 million tons and a cumulative transaction of 9.2194 million tons, reflecting a stable market price expectation [3][4] Group 3: Carbon Price Trends - In 2025, despite an increase in trading scale, carbon prices fell, with a total quota transaction volume of 235 million tons, a year-on-year increase of about 24%, but a transaction value of 14.630 billion yuan, down approximately 20% [5] - The average carbon price in 2025 was 62.4 yuan per ton, a decrease of 37% from 99.4 yuan per ton in 2024 and a 17% drop from 75.2 yuan per ton in 2023 [5] - Factors contributing to the decline in carbon prices include the introduction of a quota transfer mechanism and reduced expectations of quota scarcity due to transitional arrangements for newly included industries [6] Group 4: Future Market Optimization Suggestions - To enhance market vitality and international connectivity, it is suggested to stimulate trading activity among state-owned enterprises and optimize the quota transfer mechanism [7][8] - Recommendations include establishing clear long-term reduction targets, exploring multi-year quota allocations, and improving the trading structure and risk management tools [8] - Additionally, it is advised to actively engage with global carbon pricing mechanisms and cross-border reduction rules to enhance international cooperation [9]