欧行定调维稳降息消散

Core Viewpoint - The Euro is experiencing a slight decline against the US Dollar, with the exchange rate at 1.1746, reflecting a cautious market sentiment amid ongoing trade tensions and policy uncertainties between the US and Europe [1][2]. Group 1: European Central Bank (ECB) Policy - The ECB has maintained its deposit facility rate at 2%, signaling stability in monetary policy, with no immediate need for adjustments as inflation is expected to stabilize around the 2% target [1]. - The ECB has revised its GDP growth forecasts for the Eurozone, projecting a growth rate of 1.4% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, driven primarily by domestic demand [1]. - Inflation expectations have been adjusted to 2.1% for 2025 and 1.9% for 2026, indicating that while service sector inflation remains sticky, overall inflation is on track [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Euro Strength - The Euro's strength is attributed to the weakening of the US Dollar, driven by concerns over US tariffs and trade relations, leading to reduced demand for dollar-denominated assets [2]. - Investor sentiment has shifted towards the Euro as a safer asset amid geopolitical uncertainties, with institutions viewing it as a "relatively minimal loss" option [2]. - The market is currently in a cautious state, with the Euro benefiting from a stable policy backdrop while the Dollar's appeal diminishes [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Euro to Dollar exchange rate is currently in a narrow trading range, with key support levels at 1.1669 and 1.1595, while resistance is noted around 1.18 [3]. - The market is expected to remain within the 1.1650-1.1750 range in the short term, influenced by ECB policy stability and ongoing trade tensions [3]. - Key upcoming events to monitor include the ECB meeting on February 5, progress in US-EU trade negotiations, and US economic data releases, which may impact short-term market movements [3].