瑞郎强势震荡政策维稳 避险博弈主导走势

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc (CHF) is experiencing a strong yet constrained trading pattern against the US Dollar (USD) and Euro, driven by the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) zero interest rate policy and global risk sentiment fluctuations, with expectations that the zero interest rate will persist until the second half of 2027 [1][2]. Group 1: Swiss National Bank Policy - The SNB has maintained a policy interest rate of 0%, with no immediate plans to shift to negative rates, even in the face of potential short-term deflation [1][2]. - The SNB's policy is designed to alleviate pressure on key export sectors such as watchmaking and pharmaceuticals, which are facing challenges, including a 7.3% year-on-year decline in watch exports as of November 2025 [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Forecasts - The Swiss economy is projected to see GDP growth slow from 1.2% in 2025 to 1.0% in 2026, with a rise in unemployment from 2.8% to 3.0%, indicating insufficient recovery momentum [2]. - Inflation is expected to remain low, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) nearing 0% at the end of 2025, and the SNB forecasts inflation to rise to 0.3%-0.6% in 2026-2027, within the target range of 0%-2% [1][2]. Group 3: Currency Dynamics and Market Sentiment - The USD/CHF exchange rate is under pressure due to narrowing interest rate differentials, with the market anticipating a 50 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve in 2026, delaying the first cut until June [2]. - The CHF continues to attract safe-haven flows amid global uncertainties, including trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts, despite temporary outflows following signals of reduced geopolitical risks from events like the Davos Forum [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis and Market Outlook - The USD/CHF is expected to trade within a range of 0.79-0.81 throughout 2026, with key resistance levels at 0.8010-0.8020 and support at 0.7970 [3][4]. - The SNB's foreign exchange interventions, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, and global geopolitical risks will be critical factors influencing the CHF's performance [4].