长江有色：美指走弱伦镍沪镍联袂上行新能源需求再添火 23日镍价或上涨

Group 1 - Nickel futures market shows a positive trend with LME nickel closing at $18,100, up $125/ton or 0.7% from the previous trading day, while domestic SHFE nickel also saw a slight increase of 400 yuan/ton, or 0.26% [1] - The macroeconomic environment is influencing market trading logic, with a shift from focusing on economic data to monetary policy expectations, driven by a weaker US dollar and robust performance in risk assets and commodities [2] - The current nickel market is primarily driven by strong supply contraction expectations, particularly due to potential mining quota adjustments in Indonesia, which could tighten supply from the world's largest nickel producer [3] Group 2 - Demand for high-purity nickel in the new energy battery sector remains strong, benefiting from short-term policy incentives, while the stainless steel sector is experiencing demand suppression due to high prices [3] - The market is characterized by cautious trading behavior, with traders reluctant to sell and downstream buyers purchasing based on demand, indicating a "strong expectation, weak reality" scenario [3] - Nickel prices are expected to maintain high volatility in the short term, with future trends dependent on the final impact of Indonesian policies and actual demand post-holiday [3]