BP预警2025年四季度盈利承压

Group 1 - BP warns of significant pressure on Q4 2025 earnings due to weak oil and gas prices, poor trading performance, and substantial asset impairments related to its energy transition strategy [1] - The company expects upstream total production in Q4 2025 to remain flat compared to the previous quarter, with stable oil production but declines in natural gas and low-carbon energy output [1] - Commodity price declines are expected to negatively impact profitability, with a projected reduction in quarterly base profits of $100 million to $300 million in the natural gas and low-carbon energy segment, and $200 million to $400 million in the oil segment [1] Group 2 - The most significant financial impact comes from asset impairments, with BP anticipating after-tax adjusted expenditures of $4 billion to $5 billion in Q4 2025, primarily related to its energy transition business and equity-accounted entities [2] - Despite facing headwinds in profitability, BP has made significant progress in optimizing its balance sheet, with expected net debt at the end of Q4 projected to decrease to $22 billion to $23 billion, down from $26.1 billion at the end of Q3 [2] - BP has updated its full-year tax guidance, now expecting an effective tax rate of approximately 42%, up from the previous estimate of about 40%, mainly due to changes in profit geographic composition [2]