华创证券：25Q4预定利率研究值为1.89% 2026年预计不再调整预定利率上限

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the trend of the preset interest rate research value is significantly converging, with no adjustments expected to the preset interest rate ceiling by 2026 [1] - In the short term, there will be no "stop selling" bonus period this year, and the growth rate of liabilities may face pressure in Q3, while the improvement in new business value rate in the second half of the year is expected to be significantly less than the same period last year [1] - In the long term, the preset interest rate research value may stabilize, signaling positive long-term development for the industry, with significant reduction in asset-side reallocation pressure [1] Group 2 - The latest preset interest rate research value is 1.89%, which is 14 basis points away from the downward adjustment threshold, with a significant reduction in the decline compared to the previous quarter [2] - Starting from September 1, 2025, the upper limit for the preset interest rate of ordinary life insurance in the industry will be lowered from 2.5% to 2%, with corresponding limits for participating insurance at 1.75% and universal insurance at 1% [2] - The current interest rate environment may still have the potential for further short-term increases, and the preset interest rate research value is likely to stabilize in the short term, with the next quarter's value expected to remain above 1.75% [2]