乘联分会：1月新能源狭义乘用车零售量约为80万，渗透率约 44.4%

Core Viewpoint - The retail market for narrow passenger cars in January is estimated at approximately 1.8 million units, showing a month-on-month decline of 20.4% but a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The retail volume of new energy vehicles is expected to be around 800,000 units, with a penetration rate of approximately 44.4% [1] - The first week of January saw weak market performance with an average daily retail of 30,000 units, reflecting declines both year-on-year and month-on-month [1] - The second week showed slight recovery with average daily retail increasing to 50,000 units, with a narrowing decline [1] - By the third week, the market began to recover slowly, with average daily retail expected to reach 57,000 units due to the implementation of trade-in subsidies [1] - The fourth week is projected to see a significant increase in daily retail, potentially reaching 120,000 units, driven by completed subsidy policies and enhanced first-time purchase demand [1] Group 2: Future Projections - The passenger car market is expected to reach a new high in 2025, with total retail sales of narrow passenger cars projected at 23.745 million units [1] - Retail sales of new energy narrow passenger cars are anticipated to be 12.809 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.6% [1] - The penetration rate for new energy vehicles is expected to reach 53.9% by the end of 2025 [1]