源乐晟三位合伙人酣畅交流，深谈AI、大宗商品、新消费投资逻辑与机会

Group 1: Commodity Sector Outlook - The commodity sector remains a key focus for 2026, but caution is advised regarding specific small metals [2][9] - The long-term potential for significant price declines in resource products is low due to inelastic supply and steady demand growth [2][26] - Even with material substitution and downstream control measures, the overall upward price trend is expected to continue [2][26] Group 2: New Consumption Trends - The core strategy for new consumption involves identifying the strongest marginal changes among numerous SKUs each year and closely tracking their growth rates [2][10] - The global consumption beta is currently poor, indicating that structural opportunities still exist despite a lower ceiling compared to traditional sectors like liquor [10][13] - The market is becoming increasingly fragmented, necessitating a focus on data and marginal changes rather than personal preferences [10][12] Group 3: AI Industry Insights - The AI industry is rapidly evolving, with many subfields beginning to form commercial closed loops, provided that underlying technologies continue to improve [2][15] - AI investments have become a core industry influencing macroeconomic trends in both the US and China, with significant scale [15][17] - The year 2025 is seen as a pivotal year for AI, with numerous large model companies expected to go public, marking a critical phase for the industry [2][15] Group 4: Resource Price Dynamics - Resource prices have been on a gradual rise since 2023, driven by increasing extraction costs and decreasing reserves [5][63] - The trend of resource price increases is supported by geopolitical factors and strategic stockpiling of rare metals by various countries [6][66] - Chinese mining companies have shown strong manufacturing advantages, leading to higher profit margins compared to their Western counterparts [7][67] Group 5: Investment Strategy and Market Behavior - A prudent investment strategy involves controlling positions when direction is unclear and increasing investments as trends become more defined [4][21] - The market's reaction to AI-related investments has been volatile, with significant fluctuations in stock prices reflecting broader economic uncertainties [16][79] - The importance of understanding the long-term potential of technologies while managing short-term volatility is emphasized [19][49]