中金：2025年餐饮品牌分化持续 看好现制饮品头部品牌

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the differentiation in the restaurant industry will continue into 2025, with the ready-to-drink beverage segment performing better than expected in Q4 2025, while some dine-in restaurants show marginal improvement [1] - In Q4 2025, the same-store revenue growth for brands such as HuShang, GuMing, ChaBaiDao, Luckin, and Nayuki is estimated to exceed 20%, nearly 20%, double digits, 10%, and 3% respectively; GuoQuan shows high single-digit growth, while HaiDiLao remains flat year-on-year due to base adjustments [1] - The report maintains investment ratings, profit forecasts, and valuations for covered targets unchanged [1] Group 2 - The ready-to-drink beverage industry will face high base pressure in 2026, but leading brands are expected to maintain strong same-store and new store performance; GuMing plans to extend coffee and breakfast hours and upgrade store formats to boost same-store sales [2] - GuMing is expected to add nearly 3,500 stores in 2025, with 2026's new store count likely to remain at 2025 levels; attention is also drawn to the continuous improvement potential of brands like ChaBaiDao and HuShang [2] Group 3 - Attention is recommended on the adjustment effects of certain dine-in brands and the potential of new brands; TaiEr is focusing on "freshness" as a key adjustment direction, with expectations to complete most store adjustments by 1H 2026 [3] - The new model for TaiEr is estimated to improve same-store performance by about 10 percentage points compared to the old model, with a large-scale marketing campaign initiated since late December [3] - HaiDiLao announced that Zhang Yong will serve as CEO starting January 13, 2026, which is expected to enhance strategic execution and decision-making efficiency [3]