Crude Oil Gains on Iran Risks

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices increased, with gasoline reaching a 7-week high, supported by the IEA's reduced global crude surplus estimate and geopolitical tensions involving Iran [2][4] Group 1: Price Movements - March WTI crude oil closed up by $0.26 (+0.43%), while March RBOB gasoline rose by $0.0285 (+1.54%) [1] - Gasoline prices are at a 7-week high, indicating strong demand or supply constraints [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - President Trump is considering military options against Iran, which could disrupt crude supplies from the Middle East [2][3] - Unrest in Iran, where security forces have killed thousands of protesters, is contributing to the support for crude prices, as further escalation could impact production [4] Group 3: Production and Supply Issues - Kazakhstan's Tengiz and Korolev oil fields are expected to be closed for an additional 10 days due to power generator fires, affecting approximately 900,000 bpd of crude production [5] - The IEA has revised its 2026 global crude surplus estimate down to 3.7 million bpd from 3.815 million bpd, indicating tighter future supply [6] - The EIA has increased its 2026 US crude production estimate to 13.59 million bpd while reducing its energy consumption estimate [6]